Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, August 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite mixed economic news. Stock gains are likely contributing to this morning’s early weakness in bonds also. The Dow is currently up 261 points while the Nasdaq has gained 43 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (0.54%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s early pricing.

10/32


Bonds


30 yr - 0.54%

261


Dow


27,090

43


NASDAQ


10,984

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


ADP Employment

July's ADP Employment report was posted at 8:15 AM ET this morning with an announcement that only 167,000 new private sector jobs were added to the economy last month. This was a far cry from expectations of 1.8 million, giving an indication that the employment sector may be even weaker than thought. Interestingly though, June’s number was revised from up 2.36 million to 4.31 million. That means June was much stronger than previously thought while July was much softer. July’s figures should be drawing the most attention, but bonds are holding onto early losses, causing an upward move in rates.

High


Unknown


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow’s only relevant release is last week’s unemployment figures. There are no monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled that we will be watching, but the unemployment update does carry enough significance these days to directly affect mortgage pricing. Since a high number of initial filings is considered to be a sign of employment sector weakness, the higher the number of new filings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Forecasts are calling for another 1.4 million initial filings for benefits. Any number above 1 million new claims will be the twentieth consecutive week above that level.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.